It would take Canada’s emissions 4,055 years to warm the globe by 1°C. The Conservative Party should use these figures to educate the public on folly of climate taxes
By Pav Penna, May 25, 2024
Which factually equivalent statement better communicates Canada’s impact on the climate?
a) “Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2022 were 548 Million tonnes.”
or
b) “In 2022, Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions warmed the globe by 0.000247°C, which is equivalent to 1°C in 4,055 years.”
Statement a) is a meaningless theoretical construct to the average citizen, whereas statement b) can be readily understood by all and gives voters desperately needed context on climate change.
The data source for b) is easily verified, and immune to challenges by the Liberals or the media, since it comes from the Intergovernmental Panel’s 2023 Synthesis Report (page 19, Section B.5.2):
“For every 1,000 Gt of CO2 emitted by human activity, global surface temperature rises by 0.45°C (best estimate, with a likely range from 0.27°C to 0.63°C).”
Using this, determining Canada’s impact on climate is a matter of simple arithmetic:
(0.45°C / 1,000,000,000,000 tonnes) x 548,000,000 tonnes / yr = 0.0002466°C / yr, or 1°C per 4055 years.
There would be a significant advantage to Conservatives communicating emissions impacts in degrees, rather than tonnes. The Party can capture the high ground from activists by identifying as the “Party of Science”™, willing to educate the public about the climate and to treat voters as intelligent adults. A contrast to the Liberals could easily be drawn. This approach would also deflect much of the criticism about “axing the tax” by clearly quantifying Canada’s limited ability to solve a global problem.
Using similar logic, one can show that the proposed emissions reduction of 90 Mt by 2022 (if actually achieved!) deferred annual global warming by 0.000041°C, equivalent to 1°C per 24,691 years.
Let informed taxpayers decide whether a climate tax is an effective and appropriate solution.