Historical evidence shows sea level on Vancouver Island’s east coast is either steady or actually falling, so severe flooding is highly unlikely.
By David Hilderman, Climate Realists of B.C., April 26, 2025
The April 23, 2025, Saanich News has an article, “Sea-level rise threatens Vancouver Island communities,” stating that “scientists” warn that by 2050, some B.C. coastal areas could be permanently underwater by 2050.
This article is a reality check on these scientists.
Sea-level measurements are necessary for maritime navigation to determine accurate tidal information. As a result, records around the world are all taken hourly. Sea-level records have been taken in Campbell River since 1965 and, since then, the sea level has been falling at a rate of 1.82mm per year. In spite of the facts, Climate Central offers a map of the world that shows areas that will be under water by 2050. Figure 1 is Climate Central’s map of Campbell River.
Figure 2 shows the historical sea-level record in Campbell River.
The rate of rise is unchanged even though our governments tell us we are in a “climate emergency.”
Ignoring the facts, provincial and municipal governments are planning for this unrealistic sea-level rise. The article said: “Kwakwaka’wakw communities near Alert Bay are mapping flood-prone zones and advocating for provincial and federal support to relocate critical infrastructure.” Yet sea level is falling at Alert Bay, just as it is in Campbell River and Port Hardy.
Victoria Harbour’s sea level has been recorded hourly since 1909, making it the most extensive and continuous dataset of its kind in Canada. Only 12 months of data is missing in over 115 years.
When I first became aware of the above graph, I was sure that it could not possibly show the true dangerous sea-level rise resulting from climate change. There must be extreme storm surges that are now occurring that are unprecedented.
Victoria sea-level data shows little to fear from flooding
We really only care about the highest sea level; the average sea level really isn’t a problem. I was able to find the hourly data for Victoria from 1909 until 2018. I used Excel and pulled only the highest recorded measurements from it. Figure 4 represents the highest levels recorded in a year.
This is the sea level as physically measured in the Victoria Harbour. If there had been a storm surge this measurement would reflect it. The highest level recorded in 1951 was 3,686mm; the highest in 2003 was 3,705mm. After over 50 years the extreme peak increased 19 mm (3,705-3,686 = 19mm) or ¾ of an inch.
Here are monthly highest and lowest sea-level measurements along with 12-month centered moving averages.
Figure 5 shows the 18.6-year lunar cycle. The peak of the cycle captured in the dataset was in 2004. The next peak would then be in 2022-23. This corresponds with the photo in the Saanich News article with the caption “High waves damaged waterfront properties in Qualicum Beach on Jan. 7, 2022.”
The moving average indicates that we can expect the difference in high tides during the peak to the low of this cycle to be 274mm or 10 inches. It’s unlikely that Qualicum beach will again have problems with storm surges until 2040-41. It could very well be worse than in 2022, but likely not more than an inch worse.
The sea-level evidence makes it clear that there is no more of a threat from sea level rise on the B.C. coast today than there was 100 years ago. There have been extreme tides and storms surges in the past and there will be in the future. This climate misinformation is simply a way to suck money out of governments.
David Hilderman has a B.A.Sc in Electronic Information Systems Engineering and is a member of the CO2 Coalition and the Climate Realists of B.C.