The environmentalists can fool the public about a ‘clean,’ ‘sustainable’ future, but the numbers don’t lie: Oil and gas consumption is going up and will continue to go up
By John Feldsted, Jan. 19, 2023
What psychologists refer to as “illusory truth” is the tendency of people to believe anything, regardless of how false it is, if they hear it repeated often enough. Proponents of climate alarm endlessly repeat that the people of the world are using less and less oil and that this trend is relentless and inevitable. As their logic goes, reducing and ending the production of oil is, therefore a means to facilitate a trend that is happening anyway. Despite its constant repetition, it is not true.
The 2022 edition of the British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy provides the data on demand, by country, region and world, for crude oil and for the broader category of “crude oil and liquids”. Crude oil and liquids includes both crude oil and certain natural gas liquids such as condensate that can serve as substitutes for crude oil for some purposes.
According to the review:
• From 2011 to 2019, total demand rose by 11.2 million barrels per day, from 89.3 million barrels per day to 100.6 million barrels per day, or just over one million barrels per day per year. This is the fastest growth in oil and liquids demand over a comparable period in history.
• The economic effect of the global pandemic starting in 2020 was significant. Oil and liquids demand declined in one year by 9.2 million barrels per day.
• The recovery from the pandemic effects has been almost as sharp. From 2020 to 2021, global oil and liquids demand increased by 5.5 million barrels per day, the largest one-year rise by far in history.
The data for 2022 are not yet available, but reports by the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicate that global oil and liquids demand will exceed 99 million barrels per day. In other words, global oil and liquids demand has resumed its pre-pandemic trend of large annual increases.
Climate alarmists would have us believe that the past is not a guide to the longer-term future but rather that consumption trends can be managed by governments (though regulations, taxes and subsidies) so as completely to alter the direction of consumption trends, turning up into down. They and the organizations that promote their cause delight in publishing scenarios of the future labeled “clean and sustainable”. They should be labelled “unlikely or unfeasible.”
The projections of the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) and of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are that oil demand will increase steadily to the end of their projection periods (at least 2045).
The much-increased oil and liquids demand must be met by production and that can be in the OPEC countries or elsewhere, including North America. Policies that seek to limit investment in oil production may make the available supplies more expensive and they may hinder the economic development of some countries, like Canada, but they will not stop the global trends. It is time to confront the illusory truth about oil for the sham that it is.
Climate Activists are Misleading You
Psychologists sometimes refer to “Illusory truth” or the tendency to believe false information to be correct after repeated exposure. When they hear something and consider whether or not it is true, people rely on whether the information is in line with their understanding or if it feels familiar. Repetition makes statements easier to process relative to new, unrepeated statements, leading people to believe that the repeated conclusion is more truthful.
While today many people associate the promotion of illusory truth with Joseph Goebbels, the German Minister of Propaganda during World War II, the practice goes back much longer in history. Napoleon reportedly said that “there is only one figure in the rhetoric of serious importance, namely, repetition, whereby a repeated affirmation fixes itself in the mind in such a way that it is accepted in the end as a demonstrated truth”.
The evidence for this is most clearly found in the statistical data on world oil consumption published by the most prominent and authoritative sources.
The most comprehensive and publicly available of these is the British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy. Its 2022 annual edition provides the data on demand, by country, region and world, for crude oil and for the broader category of “crude oil and liquids”. Crude oil and liquids includes both crude oil and certain natural gas liquids such as condensate that can serve as substitutes for crude oil for some purposes.
The 2022 annual edition provides this data for the eleven-year period 2011 to 2021. Table 1 contains a summary.
Table 1
| Global Oil and Liquids Consumption Year | (thousand barrels per day) Consumption |
| 2011 | 89,323 |
| 2012 | 90,479 |
| 2013 | 91,991 |
| 2014 | 92,805 |
| 2015 | 94,792 |
| 2016 | 96,566 |
| 2017 | 98,385 |
| 2018 | 100,125 |
| 2019 | 100,550 |
| 2020 | 91,360 |
| 2021 | 96,908 |
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022
Note the following points from this record of the recent past.
• Over the period 2011 to 2019, total demand rose by 11.2 million barrels per day, or just over one million barrels per day per year. This is the fastest growth in oil and liquids demand over a comparable period in history.
• The economic effect of the global pandemic starting in 2020 was significant. Oil and liquids demand declined in one year by 9.2 million barrels per day.
• The recovery from the pandemic effects has been almost as sharp. From 2020 to 2021, global oil and liquids demand increased by 5.5 million barrels per day, the largest one-year rise by far in history.
While it is not shown in Table 1, there have been important differences in the demand trends in the more economically developed countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the non-OECD developing countries.
Over the 2011-2021 period, average annual consumption of oil and liquids in the OECD countries declined by an annual average of 0.5%, while consumption in the non-OECD countries increased by an annual average of 1.9%. This may partly explain the acceptance by people living in the OECD countries that oil demand is declining, but it demonstrates a misunderstanding of the world-wide trends.
Demand for fossil fuels has resumed pre-pandemic levels
The data for 2022 are not yet available, but reports by the US Energy Information Administration indicate that global oil and liquids demand will exceed 99 million barrels per day. In other words, global oil and liquids demand has resumed its pre-pandemic trend of large annual increases.
The trends over the period to 2025 depend heavily on both economic and geopolitical factors including notably the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions, impending inflation and recession, and escalating indebtedness. The trends over the longer term, to 2040 and 2050, are subject to great uncertainty, but there are some authoritative views available.
Historically, longer-term forecasts of economic and energy markets were based largely upon extrapolation of past and present trends. The reasons are obvious. It takes a long time for economic patterns to change, especially when they are based on fixed and expensive infrastructure. New sources of supply and demand take a long time to come on-stream. Consumers are creatures of habit, especially when the habits concern seeking increased incomes and enjoying what their incomes allow, including increased use of energy and increased transport, the latter of which is over 95% dependent on oil products.
Climate alarmists would have us believe that the past is not a guide to the future but rather that consumption trends can be managed by governments (through regulations, taxes and subsidies) to completely alter the direction of consumption trends, turning up into down. They and the organizations that promote their cause delight in publishing scenarios of the future labelled “clean and sustainable”. They should be labelled “unlikely or unfeasible.”
Let us consider two projections of future oil demand that are based on a systematic assessment of all the factors, including the underlying economic and population trends as well as the likely actions of governments – the projections of the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) and of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Table 2 compares the projections under the “reference cases” developed by each organization.
Table 2
| Global Oil Liquids Consumption (million barrels per day)Year | EIA | OPEC |
| 2025 | 105.7 | 103.7 |
| 2030 | 109.2 | 107.2 |
| 2035 | 113.2 | 108.9 |
| 2040 | 117.3 | 109.3 |
| 2045 | 121.8 | 109.1 |
| 2050 | 125.9 | n/a |
These projections demonstrate how far the visions offered by climate alarmists depart from the analysis of respected oil market experts. Note that both the EIA and OPEC project oil demand to increase steadily to the end of their projection periods.
It should also be noted that both authorities project fairly large increases in electric vehicle use over the period to 2045 and 2050, driven by immense public subsidies and stringent regulations. Notwithstanding this, the fast growth in the purchase of internal combustion vehicle sales, especially in Asia, drives oil and liquids demand higher.
The much-increased oil and liquids demand must be met by production and that can be in the OPEC countries or elsewhere, including North America. Policies that seek to limit investment in oil production may make the available supplies more expensive and they may hinder the economic development of some countries, like Canada, but they will not stop the global trends. It is time to confront the illusory truth about oil for the sham that it is.
John Feldsted is a political commentator, consultant & strategist.