The cooling that will accompany the coming ‘Grand Solar Minimum (GSM)’ will be a lot more devastating than any heating caused by rising CO2
By Ron Davison, ‘Open Letter’
Based on my look at the data (and I’ve looked at a lot), there is no empirical data on any time scale showing that CO2 is a significant climate driver. Conversely, an abundance of data shows that the sun directly or indirectly (i.e., through ocean cycles, modulating cloud cover, etc.) has a significant effect on the Earth’s climate on many different time scales.
Very simply, the climate cannot be accurately modelled by a computer because it is a non-linear chaotic system that has hundreds of input parameters (not just CO2, which is a small component). At best, it is an estimate that is only as valid as the vast number of assumptions that are fed into the computer.
The problem with the “Global Warming” approach to climate forecasting is that it uses the computer models as proof of a coming catastrophic warming. Computer models unfortunately prove nothing and to date have totally missed their projections. Just critically read every article on “Global Warming” and its consequences and chances are you’ll see a reference to the warming predicted by these unvalidated models and/or you’ll see a lot of words like could, should, might, may, etc.
Computer models prove nothing and to date have totally missed their projections
A similar article could be written that surmises the consequences of the cooling that will accompany the coming “Grand Solar Minimum (GSM)”. And make no mistake, the cooling will be a lot more devastating than any heating caused by rising CO2.
A report out of Britain (April 7th, 2018, Daily Star) showed that 20,275 more people than average died from cold between December and March of that year (with more than double that expected by the end of the winter). Heat or Eat deaths have become a huge problem in Britain (and Europe), where the renewable-energy agenda has led to huge and, for the most vulnerable, unaffordable increases in energy prices.
Unfortunately those numbers will be small compared to the losses we’ll see over the next few years. The growing seasons look like they are shortening and they will continue to shorten as we move deeper into the GSM. The crop losses will be devastating and lead to astronomically high food prices and mass starvation consistent with other major solar minimums.
The growing seasons look like they are shortening and they will continue to shorten as we move deeper into the Grand Solar Minimum. The crop losses will be devastating and lead to astronomically high food prices and mass starvation consistent with other major solar minimums.
In reality, warming due to CO2 increases will temper the cooling effects of the GSM and we should be thankful for that. In fact, I hope that the approximately 1°C increase we’ve experienced since the 1850s (the depths of the Little Ice Age) is due entirely to CO2.
Unfortunately, based on a review of CO2 and solar activity, I (and many other climate scientists) believe that the net benefit of CO2 is only 0.4 – 0.5 °C. That will help, but we’re still in for some rough years over the short to medium term. If the crowd that believes CO2’s capacity to warm the atmosphere reached saturation around 350 ppm (i.e.: CO2 is no longer contributing any meaningful atmospheric heating), then we are in for a long, cold couple of decades.